Los Cabos Luxury Real Estate Market Report: Q3 2026

Market Snapshot: Los Cabos Real Estate in Q3 2026

The Los Cabos luxury real estate market continued its upward trajectory in the third quarter of 2026, with median sale prices across the region climbing 9.4% year-over-year to reach $687,000 USD for residential properties. High-end inventory above the $2 million mark saw even sharper appreciation, posting 11.2% gains compared to Q3 2025. Total transaction volume for the quarter is estimated at $412 million USD, driven by sustained demand from U.S. and Canadian buyers, a wave of new luxury developments breaking ground along the Tourist Corridor, and continued momentum from infrastructure investments including the expanded SJD International Airport terminal. According to data compiled from the AMPI Los Cabos chapter and regional transaction records, the municipality of Los Cabos logged approximately 1,140 residential transactions during the quarter — a 6.8% increase over the same period last year.

This market analysis draws on publicly available data from AMPI (Asociación Mexicana de Profesionales Inmobiliarios), the Los Cabos Tourism Board, the Secretaría de Turismo BCS, and aggregated MLS transaction data to provide a comprehensive overview of where the market stands heading into Q4.

Price Trends by Zone

Los Cabos is not a single market — it is a collection of distinct micro-markets, each with its own price dynamics, buyer profiles, and growth catalysts. Here is how each major zone performed in Q3 2026:

Cabo San Lucas

The town of Cabo San Lucas remains the most liquid market in the region, accounting for roughly 38% of all transactions. Median condo prices reached $485,000 USD, up 8.1% from Q3 2025. The Pedregal neighborhood continues to command premium pricing, with oceanfront homes regularly closing above $4.5 million. The marina district saw increased activity in the $600K–$1.2M range as new condo towers delivered units. Demand from younger U.S. buyers (ages 35–50) seeking vacation-rental income properties drove much of the volume at this price point.

San José del Cabo

San José del Cabo posted the strongest appreciation among established zones, with median residential prices climbing 10.7% year-over-year to approximately $612,000 USD. The town’s Art District, walkable centro histórico, and proximity to world-class golf courses make it increasingly attractive to full-time relocators rather than pure vacation buyers. Gated communities such as Club Campestre, Querencia, and Puerto Los Cabos recorded notably strong resale activity, with days on market compressing to under 90 for well-priced listings.

The Tourist Corridor

The 33-kilometer stretch between Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo — known as the Tourist Corridor — remains the crown jewel of the Los Cabos luxury market. Median prices for corridor properties reached $1,420,000 USD, reflecting a 12.3% year-over-year increase. Branded residences at developments such as Four Seasons at Cabo del Sol, Chileno Bay Club, and the Waldorf Astoria Residences Pedregal are the primary drivers. Pre-construction pricing for corridor developments delivered an average premium of 18–22% by the time of completion, reinforcing the corridor’s status as the region’s most reliable appreciation play.

East Cape

East Cape — stretching from San José del Cabo eastward through communities like Los Zacatitos, Shipwreck, and Rancho Nuevo — continues to attract buyers seeking off-grid tranquility and undeveloped beachfront. Median prices for residential lots rose 14.6% year-over-year, making East Cape the fastest-appreciating zone by percentage. Finished homes remain scarce, with most inventory consisting of parcels priced between $120,000 and $350,000 USD. Several boutique developments have broken ground in 2026, which may begin to shift inventory composition toward turnkey homes by late 2027. For investors with a 3–5 year horizon, East Cape offers the most significant upside potential in the greater Los Cabos area.

For a deeper look at this emerging zone, see our East Cape community guide.

Todos Santos

The Pueblo Mágico of Todos Santos, located about an hour north of Cabo San Lucas on the Pacific coast, continued its steady climb in Q3. Median home prices reached $520,000 USD, up 9.8% year-over-year. The town’s appeal to artists, surfers, and remote workers from California has created a distinctive buyer demographic that values character and community over resort amenities. Inventory remains tight — fewer than 85 active listings were available during the quarter — which has contributed to sustained price pressure. New zoning regulations from the municipality aimed at controlling density may further constrain supply in the medium term.

Explore our Todos Santos area guide for community details and lifestyle overview.

Inventory and Days on Market

One of the defining characteristics of the Los Cabos market in 2026 has been constrained inventory. Active listings across the region totaled approximately 1,850 properties at the end of Q3, representing a 12% decline from Q3 2025. This supply compression is most acute in the $1M–$3M range, where demand from U.S. buyers is strongest.

Average days on market (DOM) for properly priced properties continued to tighten:

Price Range	Avg. Days on Market (Q3 2026)	Avg. Days on Market (Q3 2025)	Change
Under $500K	68	82	-17.1%
$500K – $1M	87	98	-11.2%
$1M – $3M	105	124	-15.3%
$3M – $5M	142	158	-10.1%
$5M+	198	215	-7.9%

The trend is clear: across every price tier, properties are selling faster than they did a year ago. Overpriced listings, however, still languish — the market rewards realistic pricing and punishes aspirational asks. Properties priced more than 10% above comparable recent sales saw DOM averages roughly double those of properly priced inventory.

New Developments Breaking Ground in 2026

A significant pipeline of new luxury developments entered the market in 2026, adding future inventory that will shape the landscape for the next two to three years. Key projects include:

• Conrad Residences (Oleada) — Tourist Corridor: Hilton’s luxury Conrad brand is developing branded residences along the corridor, with units starting above $1.8M. Phase 1 is approximately 60% pre-sold.
• Rancho San Lucas — Cabo San Lucas: Solmar Group’s master-planned community continues expansion with new villa phases and an expanded Greg Norman golf course. Entry-level villas start around $650K.
• Maravilla Los Cabos — Tourist Corridor: The Ritz-Carlton Reserve-branded project has seen strong pre-construction demand, with oceanview units in the $2.5M–$6M range.
• The Break at El Arenal — East Cape: One of the first master-planned surf communities in the East Cape, positioning the area for a new demographic of active-lifestyle buyers.
• Tamarindos Tierra Viva — Todos Santos: A wellness-focused villa community that reflects Todos Santos’ evolving identity as a health and retreat destination.

Pre-construction purchases continue to offer compelling value, with buyers typically securing 15–22% appreciation between contract signing and delivery. However, due diligence on the developer’s track record, fideicomiso structure, and construction timeline is essential. For a complete guide to the bank trust process for foreign buyers, see our fideicomiso explainer.

Foreign Buyer Demographics

International buyers — overwhelmingly from the United States and Canada — account for an estimated 72% of luxury transactions (properties above $1M) in Los Cabos. The demographic composition has shifted modestly but meaningfully over the past two years:

Texas

Buyers from Texas now represent the single largest U.S. state cohort, accounting for approximately 24% of all U.S. buyer transactions in Los Cabos. Dallas–Fort Worth and Houston are the primary metro areas. Contributing factors include direct flight availability (American Airlines and Southwest operate daily nonstop service from DFW and Houston to SJD), no state income tax alignment with Mexico’s tax treaty benefits, and a cultural familiarity with border-state real estate. Texas buyers tend to purchase in the $800K–$2.5M range and favor gated golf communities.

California

California remains a powerhouse, contributing roughly 31% of U.S. buyer volume but trending slightly downward as a share (from 35% two years ago). Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco are the top metros. California buyers skew toward higher price points — median purchase price of $1.6M — and show strong interest in design-forward properties, branded residences, and Todos Santos. The state’s high cost of living and tax burden continue to push high-net-worth Californians to seek value in Los Cabos, where comparable oceanfront property costs 40–60% less than Malibu or La Jolla.

Canada

Canadian buyers account for approximately 14% of international transactions, with Alberta and British Columbia as the primary provinces. The Canadian dollar’s relative weakness against the USD in 2026 has modestly dampened purchasing power, but demand remains steady — particularly among retirees and semi-retirees seeking winter residences. Calgary and Vancouver are the top origin cities. Canadian buyers favor the $400K–$900K condo segment and tend to prioritize rental income potential.

Other Markets

Emerging buyer interest from Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey — domestic Mexican buyers — has grown approximately 18% year-over-year. These buyers typically purchase in San José del Cabo’s gated communities and view Los Cabos as both a lifestyle upgrade and a USD-denominated asset hedge. A small but growing cohort of European buyers (primarily from the UK and Germany) has also entered the market, typically at the ultra-luxury tier above $5M.

Rental Market Performance

The vacation rental market in Los Cabos remains a critical factor in the investment equation. According to data from the Los Cabos Tourism Board and the Secretaría de Turismo BCS, the region welcomed approximately 1.2 million visitors via SJD airport in Q3 2026, a 7.3% increase over Q3 2025. Hotel occupancy rates averaged 74% during the quarter (which includes the traditionally slower summer months), with luxury properties performing above that baseline.

For vacation rental owners, the numbers remain attractive:

• Average nightly rate (luxury 2BR condo): $385–$520 USD depending on location and season
• Average occupancy (annualized): 62–71% for professionally managed properties
• Gross rental yield: 5.8–7.4% for condos in the $500K–$1.2M range
• Peak season (November–April): occupancy rates of 82–91% with nightly rates 35–50% above summer levels

Properties in Cabo San Lucas’ marina district and the Tourist Corridor near Chileno Beach consistently outperform on occupancy metrics. San José del Cabo’s boutique rental market commands premium nightly rates but slightly lower occupancy due to its appeal to longer-stay guests rather than weekend visitors.

The regulatory environment for short-term rentals in Los Cabos remains favorable compared to many U.S. markets. While the municipality has implemented registration requirements for rental properties, there are currently no caps on rental days or restrictive zoning overlays of the type seen in cities like Los Angeles, Austin, or Miami.

Outlook for Q4 2026 and Beyond

Several factors point to continued strength in the Los Cabos real estate market through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027:

• Infrastructure: The SJD airport expansion project, which added a new international terminal wing in early 2026, is already facilitating increased flight capacity from U.S. hub cities. New direct routes from Nashville, Denver, and Minneapolis–Saint Paul launched in late 2025 and have expanded the buyer funnel beyond the traditional Texas/California corridor.
• U.S. interest rates: With the Federal Reserve signaling potential rate cuts in late 2026, U.S. buyers who finance a portion of their purchase domestically may see improved borrowing conditions. Mexico-based financing remains limited for foreign buyers, but cross-border mortgage products from lenders like MoXi and Intercam have expanded their Los Cabos offerings.
• Supply pipeline: While new developments are adding units, the pace of new supply is not outstripping demand. Most pre-construction projects report 50–70% absorption before breaking ground, suggesting that the market is absorbing new inventory efficiently.
• Remote work: The permanent shift toward remote and hybrid work arrangements continues to benefit Los Cabos. The region’s proximity to the U.S. mainland (2–3 hour flights from most Western cities), same-time-zone advantage with Pacific and Mountain time, and improving fiber internet infrastructure make it an increasingly viable base for U.S. professionals.

Risks to monitor: A significant U.S. economic slowdown would reduce buyer demand, as Los Cabos remains heavily dependent on American purchasing power. Currency volatility (MXN/USD) affects operating costs for rental owners. Any changes to Mexico’s fideicomiso framework or foreign ownership regulations — while unlikely in the near term — would require close attention. Additionally, water infrastructure in the Cape Region remains a long-term concern that responsible buyers should evaluate.

For a comprehensive look at the buying process, including legal considerations and closing costs, see our complete buyer’s guide to Los Cabos real estate.

Average Prices by Zone and Property Type (Q3 2026 Estimates)

Zone	Condo / Apartment	Single-Family Home	Luxury Villa ($3M+)	Land (per m²)	YoY Appreciation
Cabo San Lucas	$485,000	$820,000	$4,500,000+	$280–$650	+8.1%
San José del Cabo	$410,000	$612,000	$3,800,000+	$220–$480	+10.7%
Tourist Corridor	$720,000	$1,420,000	$6,200,000+	$450–$1,100	+12.3%
East Cape	N/A (limited)	$380,000	$1,800,000+	$85–$220	+14.6%
Todos Santos	$340,000	$520,000	$2,400,000+	$160–$380	+9.8%

Note: Figures represent estimated medians based on aggregated transaction data and AMPI Los Cabos chapter reports. Actual prices vary significantly based on specific location, condition, amenities, and ocean proximity. Luxury villa figures represent entry points for the category in each zone.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Los Cabos real estate market overvalued in 2026?

By most conventional metrics, no. While prices have risen 8–12% annually over the past three years, Los Cabos luxury real estate remains significantly undervalued compared to peer coastal markets in the United States. Oceanview condos that would cost $1.5–$2.5M in Southern California or Hawaii are available for $500K–$900K in Los Cabos. The region also benefits from structural demand drivers — limited buildable oceanfront land, growing flight connectivity, and a permanent shift in remote work patterns — that support continued appreciation. That said, buyers should be selective: overpaying for poorly located or poorly managed properties carries the same risks here as anywhere.

Can foreigners still buy property in Los Cabos?

Yes. Foreigners can purchase property throughout Los Cabos, including beachfront and coastal-zone properties, through Mexico’s fideicomiso (bank trust) system. The fideicomiso grants the foreign buyer full ownership rights — including the right to sell, lease, renovate, and bequeath the property — for a renewable 50-year term. The process is well-established, legally robust, and has been used by tens of thousands of foreign buyers in Baja California Sur. Typical setup costs range from $1,500–$3,500 USD with annual maintenance fees of $500–$800. For a detailed walkthrough, see our fideicomiso guide.

What are closing costs when buying in Los Cabos?

Total closing costs for buyers in Los Cabos typically range from 4.5% to 6.5% of the purchase price. This includes the acquisition tax (ISABI, approximately 2–3%), notary fees (0.5–1.5%), fideicomiso setup (if applicable), appraisal fees, and various administrative charges. Sellers are responsible for capital gains tax (ISR) and real estate agent commissions. It is strongly recommended to work with a bilingual notario público experienced in foreign buyer transactions to ensure a smooth closing process.

Which Los Cabos zone offers the best investment return?

It depends on your investment timeline and strategy. For short-term rental income, Cabo San Lucas marina-area condos and Tourist Corridor beachfront properties deliver the highest occupancy rates and gross yields (5.8–7.4%). For long-term capital appreciation, East Cape and the Tourist Corridor are currently posting the strongest gains (12–15% annually). San José del Cabo offers a balanced profile — solid appreciation plus a growing full-time resident community that supports year-round rental demand. Pre-construction purchases in proven developments have historically delivered 15–22% appreciation between deposit and delivery, though they carry developer risk. For personalized investment guidance based on your budget and goals, contact our team.

Sources

• AMPI Los Cabos Chapter — Q2/Q3 2026 transaction data and median price reports
• Secretaría de Turismo, Baja California Sur — visitor arrivals and hotel occupancy statistics
• Los Cabos Tourism Board (FITURCA) — airport passenger data and tourism infrastructure updates
• Aggregated MLS data from Los Cabos-area brokerages
• Developer sales reports (Solmar Group, Discovery Land Company, Montage International)
• Banco de México — exchange rate and economic indicators

Disclaimer: This market analysis is prepared by Cabo Lux Realty for informational purposes only. Figures represent estimates based on available data and market observation and should not be construed as an official market report. Individual property values may differ significantly from regional medians. Prospective buyers should conduct independent due diligence and consult qualified legal and financial professionals before making any purchase decision.