Los Cabos Real Estate Market Report: Mid-Year 2026
The Los Cabos luxury real estate market continues its remarkable growth trajectory in 2026, driven by strong American buyer demand, limited inventory, continued infrastructure investment, and a favorable peso-dollar exchange rate. This market report provides a data-driven overview of current conditions, pricing trends, and the outlook for the remainder of the year.
Market Overview: Key Metrics
Transaction Volume
Through the first half of 2026, Los Cabos has recorded approximately 1,800 residential real estate transactions — up 12% from the same period in 2025. The luxury segment ($1M+ USD) has been particularly active, with 420+ transactions, representing 23% of total volume but over 60% of total dollar value.
Average Prices by Segment
- Condominiums: Average sale price $485,000 USD (+8% year-over-year)
- Single-family homes: Average sale price $1,250,000 USD (+11% YoY)
- Luxury homes ($3M+): Average sale price $5,800,000 USD (+14% YoY)
- Vacant lots: Average sale price $380,000 USD (+9% YoY)
Price Per Square Meter Trends
- Corridor oceanfront: $5,500-$9,000 USD/m² (up from $4,800-$7,500 in 2025)
- Corridor golf communities: $3,200-$5,500 USD/m²
- San José del Cabo centro: $2,800-$4,500 USD/m²
- Cabo San Lucas urban: $2,200-$3,800 USD/m²
- Todos Santos/Pescadero: $1,800-$3,500 USD/m²
Inventory Analysis
Active inventory remains tight across all segments:
- Total active listings: Approximately 2,400 (down 8% from mid-2025)
- Months of supply: 8 months overall; 5 months in the $1M-$3M segment; 12+ months in the $5M+ ultra-luxury segment
- New listings pace: Approximately 180-220 new listings per month
- Average days on market: 95 days for correctly priced properties; 200+ days for overpriced listings
The under-$1M segment is particularly constrained, with less than 4 months of supply in some areas. This seller's market condition at the entry level is pushing prices upward and creating bidding competition for well-positioned properties.
Buyer Demographics
American buyers continue to dominate the Los Cabos market:
- United States: 72% of foreign buyers (California, Texas, Arizona, and Colorado leading)
- Canada: 12% of foreign buyers
- Mexico (domestic): 10% of transactions (mainly Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey)
- Other international: 6% (growing interest from Europe and Asia)
Buyer Profile Shifts
Notable demographic trends in 2026:
- Remote workers: 25-30% of buyers cite remote work flexibility as a factor in their purchase decision
- Younger buyers: The 35-50 age cohort has grown from 18% to 28% of buyers over the past three years
- Second-home to primary: An increasing number of buyers (estimated 15-20%) are purchasing with the intent to make Los Cabos their primary residence
Development Pipeline
Significant projects currently under development or recently announced:
- Aman at Costa Palmas: Ultra-luxury resort and branded residences (opening 2026-2027)
- St. Regis Los Cabos: Marriott's luxury brand entering the market with hotel and residences
- Park Hyatt Los Cabos: Under development in the corridor
- Four Seasons expansion: Additional phases at Costa Palmas
- Multiple boutique hotels: 10+ boutique hotel projects in San José del Cabo and Todos Santos
The development pipeline skews heavily toward luxury and ultra-luxury, reflecting developer confidence in the high-end market and the premium pricing that branded residences command.
Rental Market Conditions
- Vacation rental revenue: Average nightly rates up 6% YoY; occupancy rates stable at 65-75% annually
- Long-term rental demand: Increasing significantly, driven by remote workers and seasonal residents. Monthly rents for two-bedroom condos in desirable areas: $1,500-$3,000 USD
- Regulatory environment: Tightening STR regulations in some communities, pushing some operators to longer-term strategies
Infrastructure and Access
Infrastructure improvements supporting market growth:
- SJD Airport: Record passenger numbers with 6.5 million+ passengers expected in 2026. New direct routes from Nashville, Austin, and Minneapolis added in the past year.
- Highway improvements: Corridor road widening and intersection improvements ongoing
- Desalination: New desalination capacity coming online, addressing the region's most critical infrastructure need
- Hospital expansion: New medical facilities under construction in San José del Cabo
Market Forecast: Second Half 2026
Our outlook for the remainder of 2026:
- Prices: Continued appreciation of 6-10% in the luxury segment, with stronger gains in the under-$1M entry market due to inventory constraints
- Volume: Transaction volume likely to moderate slightly as prices push some buyers to the sidelines, but overall demand remains robust
- Inventory: Expected to remain tight through year-end. New development deliveries will add supply but are largely pre-sold
- Currency impact: The peso-dollar exchange rate remains favorable for American buyers at approximately 17-18 pesos per dollar
Risks and Watch Items
- Water supply: Long-term water sustainability remains the region's biggest structural risk. Monitor desalination capacity additions and aquifer management policies.
- U.S. economic conditions: A U.S. recession would reduce buyer demand, particularly in the $1M-$3M segment most dependent on equity-rich American buyers.
- Overbuilding risk: The luxury development pipeline is ambitious. Monitor absorption rates versus new supply to watch for potential oversupply in specific segments.
- Regulatory changes: Mexican federal and state-level regulations around foreign ownership, rental operations, and environmental protections could affect market dynamics.
Despite these risks, the fundamental demand drivers for Los Cabos real estate — proximity to the U.S., exceptional climate, growing infrastructure, and the region's transformation into a year-round luxury destination — remain firmly intact. For well-capitalized American buyers, Los Cabos continues to offer compelling value relative to comparable U.S. luxury markets.